Will David Ehrlich be the Democratic Nominee for IL-07?

Market indicates low likelihood of David Ehrlich as Democratic nominee for IL-07.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against David Ehrlich being the Democratic nominee for IL-07, with a 99.4% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, assigning only a 5.1% chance for 'YES', suggesting that market participants are confident in alternative candidates.

• 1 Current market probability heavily favors 'NO' at 99.4%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment at 94.9% for 'NO'.
• 3 Confidence level at 60/100 indicates moderate certainty in the predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 130 hours, adding urgency to market dynamics.
• 5 Edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced with limited room for mispricing.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 17, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.