Will Derrick Gallego be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

Derrick Gallego is unlikely to be the Republican nominee for AZ-01.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Derrick Gallego being the Republican nominee for AZ-01, with a 99.6% probability of 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of his nomination at 4.9%. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market probability heavily favors 'NO' at 99.6%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a low chance of Gallego's nomination at 4.9%.
• 3 The market appears to be fairly priced with an edge of 4.5.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60 out of 100.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 3257 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.