Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Market strongly favors NO for Trump leading Venezuela by 2026.

The prediction market indicates a high probability of 99.4% that Donald Trump will not be the leader of Venezuela by the end of 2026. This aligns with the Pulse AI probability of 96.4%, suggesting a consensus against this outcome. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors NO at 99.4%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a low probability of YES at 3.6%.
• 3 The market appears to be fairly priced with an edge of 3.
• 4 Confidence level is relatively high at 75 out of 100.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 6831 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.

If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.

In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.

If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effecti