Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?

Low probability for Trump to lead before 2027, with market favoring a NO outcome.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Donald Trump being the next leader before 2027, with a NO probability of 97.65%. This aligns with the Pulse AI probability of 93.15%, indicating a general agreement on the outcome. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 65 out of 100.

• 1 Current sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Market probability suggests limited confidence in Trump's leadership before 2027.
• 3 Historical trends show low likelihood of rapid political shifts.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent participant engagement.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential developments but remains low risk.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.