Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

Market strongly favors Trump posting 20 or more times during the specified week.

The prediction market indicates a high probability (99.8%) that Donald Trump will post 20 or more times on Truth Social from March 10 to March 17, 2026. This contrasts with the Pulse AI probability, which suggests a slightly higher chance (4.7%) for the lower posting range of 0-19, indicating a divergence in sentiment between the market and AI analysis.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against Trump posting fewer than 20 times.
• 2 The market probability aligns closely with historical posting patterns of Trump.
• 3 Liquidity in this market appears stable, indicating confidence in current pricing.
• 4 The time to expiry is relatively short, adding urgency to market movements.
• 5 AI analysis suggests a minority view that Trump may post less than expected.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between March 10, 12:00 PM ET and March 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.