Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

Market strongly favors Trump posting fewer than 120 Truth Social posts.

The prediction market indicates a 100% probability that Donald Trump will not post between 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026. This aligns with the Pulse AI probability of 98% for the same outcome, suggesting a strong consensus against the likelihood of such posting activity.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against the likelihood of 120-139 posts.
• 2 The market probability and AI predictions are closely aligned, indicating strong consensus.
• 3 The edge of 2 suggests the market is fairly priced with minimal room for adjustment.
• 4 Confidence level of 80/100 indicates a high degree of certainty in the current predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is short, which may limit the potential for significant changes in sentiment.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between March 3, 12:00 PM ET and March 10, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.