Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

The market strongly favors Trump posting fewer than 140 Truth Social posts.

With a market probability of 99.95% for NO, there is a strong consensus that Donald Trump will not post between 140-159 times during the specified period. The Pulse AI probability also indicates a low likelihood of this outcome, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a confidence level of 65 out of 100.

• 1 Market sentiment heavily favors NO with a 99.95% probability.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for YES at 3.55%.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 indicates the market is likely fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 65/100 reflects moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry is short at 13 hours, adding urgency to the market dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between March 3, 12:00 PM ET and March 10, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.