Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?

The market strongly favors Trump posting fewer than 160 Truth Social posts next week.

The prediction market shows a significant preference for the outcome that Donald Trump will not post 160-179 times on Truth Social during the specified period, with a probability of 99.65% for 'NO'. In contrast, the Pulse AI probability suggests a slightly higher chance of 4.85% for 'YES', indicating some divergence in expectations.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors fewer posts from Trump.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests differing expectations.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is short at 25 hours, adding urgency to the predictions.
• 5 The edge of 4.5 indicates the market is likely priced fairly based on available data.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between March 24, 12:00 PM ET and March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.