Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?

Market strongly favors Trump posting fewer than 180 Truth Social posts.

The prediction market shows a high probability of NO at 99.65%, indicating a strong consensus against Trump posting 180-199 posts during the specified period. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, suggesting a low likelihood of reaching that post count, with a confidence level of 65 out of 100. The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.5.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors fewer posts from Trump.
• 2 The high NO probability indicates strong skepticism about reaching the post count.
• 3 Historical posting patterns may influence current expectations.
• 4 Liquidity in the market suggests limited trading activity.
• 5 Time pressure is significant with only 7 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between March 20, 12:00 PM ET and March 27, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.