Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

The market strongly favors that Trump will not post 20-39 times during the specified week.

Current market probabilities indicate a consensus that Donald Trump will not post the specified number of Truth Social posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026. With a market probability of 0% for 'YES' and a Pulse AI probability of only 3%, the sentiment leans heavily towards 'NO'. The edge of 3 suggests that the market is fairly priced based on available information.

• 1 Market shows strong confidence in the 'NO' outcome with 100% probability.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slight chance of 'YES' at 3%, indicating low sentiment for high posting frequency.
• 3 The edge of 3 indicates that the market is likely accurately priced based on current data.
• 4 Time to expiry is short at 81 hours, adding urgency to the market dynamics.
• 5 Current sentiment reflects a belief that Trump will not be highly active on Truth Social during this timeframe.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between March 17, 12:00 PM ET and March 24, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.