Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

Market predicts Trump will not post 200+ times on Truth Social from March 10-17, 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood that Donald Trump will not exceed 200 posts on Truth Social during the specified week, with a NO probability of 95.9%. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher YES probability of 8.6%. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors the NO outcome.
• 2 Historical posting patterns suggest lower activity during this timeframe.
• 3 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent participant interest.
• 4 Time pressure is moderate, with 81 hours until expiry.
• 5 The edge indicates the market is fairly priced, with minimal discrepancies.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between March 10, 12:00 PM ET and March 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.