Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

The market strongly favors no, predicting Trump will not post 200+ Truth Social posts in the timeframe.

With a market probability of 99.95% for 'NO', there is a strong consensus that Donald Trump will not exceed 200 posts from March 13 to March 20, 2026. The Pulse AI probability also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher chance of 4.55% for 'YES'. The edge of 4.5 suggests that the market is fairly priced based on current sentiment and expectations.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' with 99.95% probability.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 4.55%.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced based on available data.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is short at 28 hours, adding urgency to market dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between March 13, 12:00 PM ET and March 20, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.