Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

Market shows a close split on Trump posting over 200 Truth Social posts in early March 2026.

The prediction market indicates a slight lean towards 'NO' for Donald Trump posting over 200 Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026, with probabilities at 54.9% for 'NO' and 45.1% for 'YES'. The market is deemed fairly priced with an edge of 0, suggesting balanced sentiment and confidence levels at 65 out of 100.

• 1 Current market probability shows a close contest between YES and NO.
• 2 Market confidence is moderate at 65 out of 100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 3 The edge of 0 suggests the market is fairly priced with no significant bias.
• 4 Time to expiry is short at 20 hours, increasing urgency in market movements.
• 5 Historical posting patterns of Trump may influence future predictions.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between March 3, 12:00 PM ET and March 10, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.