Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?

Market strongly favors Trump posting fewer than 40 Truth Social posts.

The prediction market indicates a 100% probability that Donald Trump will post fewer than 40 Truth Social posts between March 6 and March 13, 2026. With a market probability of 0% for the YES outcome, sentiment is firmly against the likelihood of reaching the 40-59 posts range. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this view, suggesting minimal chance for the YES outcome.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against the YES outcome.
• 2 The market probability shows no confidence in Trump posting 40-59 times.
• 3 Pulse AI suggests a slight chance for YES, but it remains very low.
• 4 The edge indicates the market is fairly priced with no significant discrepancies.
• 5 Time to expiry is short, adding urgency to the current market dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between March 6, 12:00 PM ET and March 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.