Will Donald Trump visit Arkansas in 2026?

The market shows a balanced probability for Trump visiting Arkansas in 2026.

With both the market and AI probabilities closely aligned at around 50%, the likelihood of Donald Trump visiting Arkansas in 2026 is currently seen as evenly split. The confidence level of 55 suggests moderate uncertainty, indicating that various factors could influence the outcome as the date approaches.

• 1 Market probability is evenly split at 50% for both YES and NO.
• 2 AI probability slightly favors YES at 51.5%, indicating a marginal edge.
• 3 Confidence level of 55 suggests moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
• 5 The edge of 1.5 indicates that the market is fairly priced based on current data.

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.