Will Donald Trump visit Vermont in 2026?

The market suggests a higher likelihood of Trump not visiting Vermont in 2026.

With a market probability of 60% for 'NO' and 40% for 'YES', the consensus leans towards Donald Trump not visiting Vermont in 2026. The Pulse AI probability slightly favors a visit at 41.5%, indicating some uncertainty. The edge of 1.5 suggests that the market is fairly priced, reflecting a balanced view among participants.

• 1 Current sentiment favors a 'NO' outcome for Trump's visit.
• 2 Market probabilities indicate a close contest but lean against the visit.
• 3 The confidence level of 55/100 reflects moderate uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
• 5 The edge of 1.5 suggests that the market is well-aligned with expectations.

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.