Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

The market indicates a low probability of Trump winning the 2028 Republican nomination.

Currently, the market assigns a 1.75% probability to Trump winning the Republican nomination, suggesting strong skepticism among participants. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 4.75%, indicating that while there is some expectation of his candidacy, it remains low overall. With a confidence level of 80/100, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The low probabilities reflect skepticism about Trump's future candidacy.
• 3 Historical trends show fluctuating support for candidates over time.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, with a clear consensus among traders.
• 5 Time until expiry allows for potential changes in political dynamics.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.