Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Market shows low probability for Trump winning the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize.

The prediction market indicates an 8.5% chance of Donald Trump winning the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, with a strong consensus against it at 91.5%. The Pulse AI offers a slightly higher probability of 11.5%, suggesting a marginally more optimistic view, but overall confidence remains high at 85/100, indicating a well-priced market.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards 'NO'.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests differing perspectives.
• 3 High confidence level indicates market stability.
• 4 Time until expiry allows for potential changes in sentiment.
• 5 Historical trends show low rates of political figures winning the prize.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.