Will Doug Collins be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

Low probability for Doug Collins leaving the Trump Cabinet before 2027.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against Doug Collins leaving the Trump Cabinet, with a 99.65% probability for 'NO'. However, the Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance of 4.85% for 'YES', indicating some uncertainty in the market's confidence level.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors Collins staying in the Cabinet.
• 2 The disparity between market and AI probabilities suggests potential market overconfidence.
• 3 Historical trends show cabinet members often remain until the end of their term unless external pressures arise.
• 4 Liquidity in this market appears stable, reflecting consistent interest from participants.
• 5 Time until expiry is substantial, allowing for potential developments that could influence outcomes.

This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.

An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.

If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of th