Will Duke Rodriguez win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?

Duke Rodriguez has a 43.5% chance to win the GOP primary for New Mexico Governor.

The market indicates a 43.5% probability of Duke Rodriguez winning the 2026 Republican primary for New Mexico Governor, with a higher likelihood of a loss at 56.5%. The market appears fairly priced with no edge, reflecting a moderate level of confidence at 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a NO outcome at 56.5%.
• 2 Rodriguez's probability is stable at 43.5%, indicating a competitive race.
• 3 No significant edge suggests balanced betting activity.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is 1730 hours, allowing for potential shifts in dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of New Mexico, scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 New Mexico Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New Mexico Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.