Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

Ebba Busch has a low probability of becoming Sweden's next Prime Minister.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong belief that Ebba Busch will not be the next Prime Minister of Sweden, with a 97.6% chance of a 'NO' outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting limited support for her candidacy. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Ebba Busch's political standing may be influenced by upcoming elections.
• 3 Historical trends show low success rates for candidates in similar positions.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent participant engagement.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential shifts in political dynamics.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.