Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Eleni Kounalakis is unlikely to win the 2026 California Governor Election.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Eleni Kounalakis winning, with a 99.85% probability of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 3.15% for a YES outcome, indicating a general lack of confidence in her candidacy. Given the time to expiry of over 5632 hours, market sentiment may shift with significant political developments.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Kounalakis's current political standing appears weak.
• 3 Historical trends suggest incumbents have an advantage.
• 4 Market liquidity is stable, reflecting consistent participant interest.
• 5 Time until the election allows for potential shifts in dynamics.

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.