Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?

Emmanuel Grégoire has a strong chance of winning the Paris mayor election.

The prediction market indicates a 67.5% probability of Emmanuel Grégoire winning the Paris mayor election, which aligns closely with the Pulse AI's estimate of 63.5%. The market appears fairly priced with a slight edge of -4, suggesting balanced sentiment among participants. Confidence in this prediction is relatively high at 75 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors Grégoire with a 67.5% probability of winning.
• 2 Pulse AI's estimate is slightly lower at 63.5%, indicating a close alignment with market views.
• 3 The edge of -4 suggests the market is fairly priced without significant mispricing.
• 4 Confidence level of 75/100 indicates a strong belief in the current predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry for the election is unknown, which may affect market volatility.

The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).