Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?

Market suggests Macron is unlikely to leave leadership before 2027.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Emmanuel Macron will not be the next leader out before 2027, with a high probability of 99.3% for 'NO'. The Pulse AI further supports this view, assigning a low probability of 5.2% for 'YES', suggesting that current sentiment is firmly against his early departure.

• 1 Current market probability heavily favors 'NO' at 99.3%.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns with market, showing only 5.2% for 'YES'.
• 3 Confidence level of 65/100 indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial at 6969 hours, allowing for potential shifts.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 4.5.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.