Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Low market confidence in Peñalosa winning the 1st round of the 2026 election.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Enrique Peñalosa winning the first round, with only 0.15% probability for a YES outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a low likelihood, suggesting that current sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a fair pricing edge, the market appears stable but not favorable for Peñalosa.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a NO outcome at 99.85%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for YES at 4.65%.
• 3 The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 4.5.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is 1947 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.

If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).