Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

The market strongly favors Peñalosa losing the 2026 election.

Current market probabilities indicate a negligible chance of Enrique Peñalosa winning the 2026 Colombian presidential election, with a 99.95% likelihood of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI model suggests a slightly higher probability for a YES outcome at 3.05%, but overall confidence in the NO outcome remains high at 85/100.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a NO outcome for Peñalosa.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher probability for a YES outcome.
• 3 Current sentiment suggests low confidence in Peñalosa's candidacy.
• 4 The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 2001 hours, allowing for potential changes.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).