Will Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?

Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin has a low chance of winning the 2026 Dublin-central by-election.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin winning the by-election, with a probability of only 2.05% for a YES outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a low likelihood, suggesting that current sentiment is firmly against his candidacy. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a time frame of 6827 hours until the election, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests some uncertainty.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate, indicating potential for shifts.
• 4 Time until the election allows for potential changes in dynamics.
• 5 Liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent interest in the market.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).