Will Eric France be the Democratic Nominee for IL-02?

Eric France has a low chance of being the Democratic nominee for IL-02.

The prediction market indicates a 2.45% probability for Eric France as the Democratic nominee for IL-02, with a strong consensus against this outcome at 97.55%. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 6.95%, but overall sentiment remains firmly against his nomination.

• 1 Market shows a strong preference for 'NO' at 97.55%.
• 2 Pulse AI estimates a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 6.95%.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, suggesting some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is 92 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 17, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.