Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

The market strongly favors that Erika Kirk will not win the 2028 Republican nomination.

Current market probabilities indicate a 0.55% chance of Erika Kirk winning the Republican nomination, with a strong consensus against her candidacy. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 3.55%, but overall sentiment remains firmly in favor of a 'NO' outcome. With 22870 hours until expiry, the market appears to be fairly priced with a confidence level of 80 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability shows a strong NO sentiment at 99.45%.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a slightly higher YES probability at 3.55%.
• 3 The edge of 3 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 80/100 indicates a strong belief in the current probabilities.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.