Will Estonia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?

Estonia has a low chance of winning the Eurovision 2026 televote.

The current market probability for Estonia winning the televote stands at 7.5%, with a strong consensus against it at 92.5%. The Pulse AI probability suggests a slightly higher chance at 12%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 60 out of 100.

• 1 Market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome for Estonia.
• 2 Current probabilities indicate a well-priced market with an edge of 4.5.
• 3 Time to expiry is significant at 1337 hours, allowing for potential shifts.
• 4 Public interest and engagement can fluctuate leading up to the event.
• 5 Historical performance of Estonia in Eurovision may influence future sentiment.

The Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 is scheduled for May 16, 2026.

This market will resolve to the country that receives the highest number of points from the televote in the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026.

All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.