Will FDP win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?

FDP is unlikely to win the second most seats in the upcoming elections.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against the FDP winning the second most seats, with a 99.95% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 4.55% for 'YES', suggesting that market sentiment is firmly against this outcome.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors 'NO' at 99.95%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability shows a slight chance for 'YES' at 4.55%.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 219 hours, adding urgency.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 4.5.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Rhineland-Palatinate (Rheinland-Pfalz) are scheduled to take place on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Rhineland-Palatinate (Landtag) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Rhineland-Palatinate election for the Landtag does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Rhineland-Palatinate (Lande