Will Fernando Olivera win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Fernando Olivera has a low chance of winning the 2026 Peruvian presidential election.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong belief that Fernando Olivera will not win the election, with a 99.7% NO probability. The Pulse AI also reflects a low likelihood of victory at 4.8%, suggesting consensus on his unfavorable position in the race.

• 1 Market probability shows overwhelming confidence in a NO outcome.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment.
• 3 Current edge indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level suggests moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential shifts in political dynamics.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Elections Jury of Peru (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones) (portal.jne.gob.pe/portal).