Will Fidesz-KDNP win 100-114 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?

Fidesz-KDNP is unlikely to win 100-114 seats in the upcoming election.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Fidesz-KDNP will not secure 100-114 seats, with a probability of 84.5% for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects skepticism, assigning a 20% chance for 'YES', suggesting that current sentiment leans heavily against this outcome.

• 1 Market probability shows a strong consensus against Fidesz-KDNP winning the specified seats.
• 2 The Pulse AI probability is slightly more optimistic but still favors 'NO'.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced based on current data.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate certainty in the predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry of 566 hours allows for potential developments that could influence outcomes.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Fidesz-KDNP in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified coalition. If the specified coalition dissolves prior to the election, this market will resolve based on the total number of seats won by the two component parties.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).