Will Fidesz-KDNP win 115-129 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?

Low market probability for Fidesz-KDNP winning 115-129 seats indicates skepticism.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Fidesz-KDNP winning 115-129 seats, with a 92.3% probability of NO. The Pulse AI offers a slightly higher probability for YES at 12.2%, suggesting some uncertainty remains. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Fidesz-KDNP's historical performance may influence perceptions.
• 3 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting current odds.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Fidesz-KDNP in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified coalition. If the specified coalition dissolves prior to the election, this market will resolve based on the total number of seats won by the two component parties.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).