Will Fidesz-KDNP win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?

Fidesz-KDNP is unlikely to win 130+ seats in the upcoming election.

The prediction market indicates a low probability of 6.75% for Fidesz-KDNP winning 130+ seats, with a stronger consensus against it at 93.25%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a modest chance of 11.25% for a win, indicating that the market is fairly priced with a slight edge.

• 1 Market shows strong skepticism about Fidesz-KDNP achieving 130+ seats.
• 2 Current probabilities suggest a consensus against a significant electoral win.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 indicates the market is likely accurately priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 reflects moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 5 Time until the election (565 hours) allows for potential shifts in public opinion.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Fidesz-KDNP in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified coalition. If the specified coalition dissolves prior to the election, this market will resolve based on the total number of seats won by the two component parties.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).