Will Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?

The market indicates a low probability for Fidesz-KDNP winning 70-84 seats.

Current market probabilities suggest a strong expectation that Fidesz-KDNP will not secure 70-84 seats in the upcoming election, with a 74.5% likelihood of a NO outcome. The market appears fairly priced with no edge, reflecting a moderate confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability favors a NO outcome significantly at 74.5%.
• 2 Current sentiment indicates skepticism about Fidesz-KDNP's seat count.
• 3 The confidence level is moderate, suggesting some uncertainty remains.
• 4 No edge in pricing indicates the market is balanced and fairly valued.
• 5 Time until the election is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Fidesz-KDNP in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified coalition. If the specified coalition dissolves prior to the election, this market will resolve based on the total number of seats won by the two component parties.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).