Will Fidesz-KDNP win 85-99 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?

The market favors a NO outcome for Fidesz-KDNP winning 85-99 seats.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong belief that Fidesz-KDNP will not secure 85-99 seats in the upcoming election, with a NO probability of 82.5%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly higher probabilities for a YES outcome. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Market shows a strong NO sentiment at 82.5%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher YES probability at 22%.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 indicates fair pricing of the market.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60 out of 100.
• 5 Time to expiry is 562 hours, allowing for potential shifts.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Fidesz-KDNP in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified coalition. If the specified coalition dissolves prior to the election, this market will resolve based on the total number of seats won by the two component parties.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).