Fidesz-KDNP is unlikely to win the vote by 6-9% in 2026, per current market data.
The prediction market indicates a low probability of 6.95% for Fidesz-KDNP winning the national list vote by 6-9%. With a Pulse AI probability of 11.45%, there is a consensus that the party faces significant challenges in achieving this margin. The market appears fairly priced, reflecting a moderate level of confidence in the current predictions.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in th