Will Finland join the Board of Peace?

The market strongly favors Finland not joining the Board of Peace.

Current market probabilities indicate a high likelihood that Finland will not join the Board of Peace, with a consensus of 98.7% against. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly higher probabilities for a potential YES. This suggests a general agreement among participants that Finland's membership is unlikely.

• 1 Market probability for NO is significantly higher than YES.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slight divergence but still favors NO.
• 3 The edge indicates the market is fairly priced at this time.
• 4 Confidence level suggests moderate certainty in the current probabilities.
• 5 Lack of time pressure may allow for gradual shifts in sentiment.

Donald Trump and the United States recently sent invitations to countries around the world, inviting them to join the US-led Board of Peace which will oversee conflict resolution in Gaza and elsewhere (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-names-rubio-blair-kushner-gaza-board-under-trumps-plan-2026-01-17/).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country joins the Board of Peace by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met:

- That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state.

- Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace).

Only statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board