Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Fiorella Molinelli is unlikely to win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Fiorella Molinelli winning the 2026 election, with a 99.85% probability of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 4.65% for a YES outcome, indicating a general skepticism towards her candidacy.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a NO outcome at 99.85%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for YES at 4.65%.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 suggests moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is 774 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Elections Jury of Peru (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones) (portal.jne.gob.pe/portal).