Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Flávio Bolsonaro has a 37.95% chance of winning the 2026 election.

The prediction market indicates a 37.95% probability of Flávio Bolsonaro winning the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, with a stronger consensus against his victory at 62.05%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a low likelihood of his success. The market appears fairly priced with an edge of -1.5.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans against Bolsonaro's victory.
• 2 The probability gap suggests skepticism about his campaign.
• 3 Historical trends may influence voter behavior leading up to the election.
• 4 Market liquidity is stable, indicating consistent trading activity.
• 5 Time until the election allows for potential shifts in dynamics.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).