Flávio Bolsonaro has a low chance of winning the first round by 5–10%.
The prediction market indicates a 7.90% probability for Flávio Bolsonaro to win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%, while the AI model suggests a slightly higher probability of 12.4%. With a confidence level of 55/100 and an edge of 4.5, the market appears fairly priced, reflecting skepticism about his chances.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the el