Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election?

The market shows a low probability of François Asselineau winning the 2027 election.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong consensus against François Asselineau winning the 2027 French presidential election, with a 99.85% chance of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI probability suggests a slightly higher, yet still low, chance of 3.15% for a YES outcome, indicating some uncertainty in the market. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with moderate confidence.

• 1 Market probability strongly favors a NO outcome at 99.85%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher YES probability at 3.15%.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 65 out of 100.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at over 10000 hours.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).