Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election?

François Bayrou has a very low chance of winning the 2027 French presidential election.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against François Bayrou winning the 2027 French presidential election, with a probability of only 0.15% for a YES outcome. This aligns with the Pulse AI probability, which suggests a slightly higher but still low chance of 3.15%. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with moderate confidence.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Bayrou's historical performance in elections may influence perceptions.
• 3 The market shows low liquidity, indicating limited trading activity.
• 4 Time until the election is substantial, allowing for potential changes.
• 5 Confidence level suggests moderate certainty in current predictions.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).