Will François Briançon be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?

Market indicates a lower chance for François Briançon to be mayor of Toulouse in 2026.

The prediction market shows a 41% probability for François Briançon to become the next mayor of Toulouse, while the majority, 59%, believe he will not. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a fair pricing edge, the market reflects a balanced view of his candidacy as the election approaches in 313 hours.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a 'NO' outcome for Briançon's candidacy.
• 2 The market probability aligns with the AI's assessment, indicating consensus.
• 3 Confidence level suggests moderate uncertainty about the prediction.
• 4 Time until the election may influence market dynamics as events unfold.
• 5 No significant edge indicates that the market is accurately priced at this time.

The 2026 Toulouse municipal election is scheduled for March 15, 2026, with a potential runoff on March 22. The Mayor of Toulouse will then be elected by the Toulouse Municipal Council elected in this election.

This market will resolve according to the next individual elected to be the Mayor of Toulouse following this election.

Interim, temporary, or caretaker mayors will not count.

If no such mayor has been elected by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Toulouse; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.