Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?

Hollande has a low chance of winning the 2027 presidential election.

The market indicates a strong belief that François Hollande will not win the 2027 French presidential election, with a 98% probability against his candidacy. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, assigning a 95% probability to the 'NO' outcome. The market appears fairly priced, suggesting limited room for significant shifts in sentiment at this time.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors Hollande not winning.
• 2 The probability gap indicates strong skepticism about his candidacy.
• 3 Historical trends suggest incumbents or fresh candidates are favored.
• 4 Liquidity in this market appears stable with low volatility.
• 5 Time until election allows for potential shifts but currently favors 'NO'.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).