Will François Piquemal be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?

François Piquemal is highly unlikely to become the next mayor of Toulouse.

The prediction market indicates a 0.05% probability of François Piquemal winning the mayoral election, suggesting strong skepticism about his candidacy. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 3.05%, but both figures reflect a consensus that he is not favored to win. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 65 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Piquemal's chances are perceived as minimal based on current data.
• 3 The market probability aligns closely with the AI's assessment.
• 4 Confidence in the market's pricing indicates stability in predictions.
• 5 No imminent events are expected to drastically alter the current probabilities.

The 2026 Toulouse municipal election is scheduled for March 15, 2026, with a potential runoff on March 22. The Mayor of Toulouse will then be elected by the Toulouse Municipal Council elected in this election.

This market will resolve according to the next individual elected to be the Mayor of Toulouse following this election.

Interim, temporary, or caretaker mayors will not count.

If no such mayor has been elected by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Toulouse; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.