Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ruffin has a low chance of winning the 2027 French presidential election.

The market indicates a strong belief that François Ruffin will not win the 2027 French presidential election, with a probability of only 0.80% for a YES outcome. The Pulse AI further supports this view, assigning a 3.8% probability to a YES outcome, suggesting a consensus on his low viability as a candidate. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 65 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors NO at 99.2%.
• 2 Ruffin's probability of winning is significantly lower than market expectations.
• 3 The market is considered fairly priced with an edge of 3.
• 4 The confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the current probabilities.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).