Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?

Low probability for Friedrich Merz to become leader before 2027.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Friedrich Merz becoming the next leader before 2027, with a 97.6% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 6.9%, indicating some uncertainty in the market.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' at 97.6%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 6.9%.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 4.5.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 65/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 6948 hours, allowing for potential political developments.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.