Will FW win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

FW is unlikely to win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin elections.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against FW winning the most seats, with a 99.7% probability for NO. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, assigning a 95.2% probability to NO, indicating a significant belief that FW will not secure the majority.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors NO for FW winning seats.
• 2 The probability gap indicates strong confidence in the NO outcome.
• 3 Historical trends suggest incumbents often retain seats in state elections.
• 4 Liquidity in this market appears stable, reflecting consistent interest.
• 5 Time remaining until the election allows for potential shifts in public opinion.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)